{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6818c0c5-c936-4092-85c7-a9d087f083e1", "symbol": "ZH", "name": "Zhihu Inc ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.948, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.592, "architecture_energy": 9.399, "architecture_maturity": 4.148, "architecture_confidence": 62.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.79, "rotation_up": 32.17, "upward_expansion": 33.75, "deceleration": 32.32, "rotation_down": 24.01, "downward_expansion": 42.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.223333, 3.193455, 3.179762, 3.183591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.25, "trend_reference": 3.244, "distance_from_trend": 0.00185, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.117308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.405516, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063401, "excess_performance": -0.189025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044238, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715634, "relative_activity": 0.556958, "balance": 0.649754, "dry_up": 0.655921, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064488, "annualized_volatility": 0.46941, "from_high_reference": -0.414414, "from_low_reference": 0.264591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.244, "fair_value_reference": 4.117308, "structural_low": 2.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020069, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.151724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041635, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.081568, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.341667, "worst_return": -0.245098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.207274, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.318147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.490741, "worst_return": -0.34188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.197828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.17, "volume": 896391, "typical_volume": 1586868.55, "trend": 3.264, "fair_value": 4.188462, "relative_strength": -22.469378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.53107, "energy": 12.189716, "activity_lines": [ 3.169333, 3.144182, 3.157, 3.190946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.14, "volume": 692835, "typical_volume": 1558462.85, "trend": 3.256, "fair_value": 4.162821, "relative_strength": -21.956611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.214718, "energy": 14.872542, "activity_lines": [ 3.166667, 3.147636, 3.157381, 3.182946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.27, "volume": 1066308, "typical_volume": 1525661.9, "trend": 3.254, "fair_value": 4.138782, "relative_strength": -18.92303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.305423, "energy": 9.355383, "activity_lines": [ 3.206, 3.174364, 3.169952, 3.183849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.25, "volume": 715634, "typical_volume": 1284897.7, "trend": 3.244, "fair_value": 4.117308, "relative_strength": -21.405516, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.592365, "energy": 9.399085, "activity_lines": [ 3.223333, 3.193455, 3.179762, 3.183591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }