{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "681aa297-031a-400d-b105-250f572eaf2d",
    "symbol": "SHB-B",
    "name": "Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 81.775,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 51.562,
    "architecture_energy": 28.527,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.049,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.102,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.08,
        "rotation_up": 40.08,
        "upward_expansion": 67.12,
        "deceleration": 81.97,
        "rotation_down": 25.63,
        "downward_expansion": 14.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        232.133335,
        232.30182,
        229.489524,
        226.363255
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 235.0,
    "trend_reference": 223.193501,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.052898,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 153.442839,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.531515,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.218682,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.054244,
    "excess_performance": -0.007251,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052898,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040434,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.531515,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003784,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012187,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006209,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054244,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.675186,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 269460,
      "relative_activity": 0.772902,
      "balance": 1.675186,
      "dry_up": 0.886741,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032144,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.199536,
      "from_high_reference": -0.025705,
      "from_low_reference": 0.312238
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 223.193501,
      "fair_value_reference": 153.442839,
      "structural_low": 196.705746,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.020934,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008278,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.236994,
        "worst_return": -0.083459,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.026975,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020294,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.278741,
        "worst_return": -0.064924,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.014425,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.073767,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.365447,
        "worst_return": -0.036333,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.282136,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.279854,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.5593,
        "worst_return": 0.262135,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083459,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004926,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019128,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.028614,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.24285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.23571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.08748,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.083004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 149.780993,
        "relative_strength": 3.430488,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 225.600006,
        "volume": 410547,
        "typical_volume": 424220.0,
        "trend": 221.3699,
        "fair_value": 150.666353,
        "relative_strength": 0.044932,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.355657,
        "energy": 43.628353,
        "activity_lines": [
          231.986669,
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          224.321757
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 229.800003,
        "volume": 262082,
        "typical_volume": 396783.95,
        "trend": 222.036328,
        "fair_value": 151.574658,
        "relative_strength": 0.11562,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.123761,
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        "activity_lines": [
          230.960003,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 232.800003,
        "volume": 294503,
        "typical_volume": 371603.8,
        "trend": 222.550569,
        "fair_value": 152.496229,
        "relative_strength": -0.119101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.156284,
        "energy": 28.041004,
        "activity_lines": [
          231.146669,
          231.585456,
          228.490675,
          225.560065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 235.0,
        "volume": 269460,
        "typical_volume": 348633.9,
        "trend": 223.193501,
        "fair_value": 153.442839,
        "relative_strength": -1.218682,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.562213,
        "energy": 28.526726,
        "activity_lines": [
          232.133335,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}