{ "ticker": { "uuid": "681adb06-95bc-4a21-b403-673413d95e70", "symbol": "XNIF", "name": "Xtrackers Nifty 50 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.661, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.264, "architecture_energy": 35.65, "architecture_maturity": 13.444, "architecture_confidence": 77.819, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 63.81, "upward_expansion": 40.13, "deceleration": 33.13, "rotation_down": 16.66, "downward_expansion": 21.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 196.372, 195.310182, 192.709333, 192.850925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 199.720001, "trend_reference": 195.306333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 223.31532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.746926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056589, "excess_performance": -0.139473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046309, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.124444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.00386, "balance": 10.124444, "dry_up": 0.049701, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01888, "annualized_volatility": 0.159641, "from_high_reference": -0.123651, "from_low_reference": 0.111284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.306333, "fair_value_reference": 223.31532, "structural_low": 179.720001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007853, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.018222, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033767, "worst_return": -0.041686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017737, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058632, "worst_return": -0.081195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068359, "worst_return": -0.141681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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224.629743, "relative_strength": -14.938595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.911397, "energy": 18.685525, "activity_lines": [ 191.809333, 189.556001, 190.093048, 193.823635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 195.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 623.7, "trend": 199.339, "fair_value": 224.428012, "relative_strength": -16.543244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.975254, "energy": 22.241965, "activity_lines": [ 193.625334, 190.633819, 190.356667, 193.48785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 195.539993, "volume": 580, "typical_volume": 647.75, "trend": 198.595333, "fair_value": 224.201987, "relative_strength": -14.719696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.818754, "energy": 30.511208, "activity_lines": [ 194.950664, 191.775272, 190.72419, 193.242753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 194.240005, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 647.8, "trend": 197.668333, "fair_value": 223.949038, "relative_strength": -15.414193, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.795634, "energy": 29.054498, "activity_lines": [ 195.056, 192.577455, 191.038667, 192.961764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 192.720001, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 562.2, "trend": 196.722333, "fair_value": 223.703653, "relative_strength": -15.485015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.683966, "energy": 19.432451, "activity_lines": [ 194.264, 193.016728, 191.259619, 192.642516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.199997, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 546.25, "trend": 195.967333, "fair_value": 223.493397, "relative_strength": -13.565764, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.361548, "energy": 21.411151, "activity_lines": [ 194.717333, 193.941818, 191.833143, 192.608817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 199.720001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 518.1, "trend": 195.306333, "fair_value": 223.31532, "relative_strength": -12.746926, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.264043, "energy": 35.650138, "activity_lines": [ 196.372, 195.310182, 192.709333, 192.850925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }