{ "ticker": { "uuid": "681b732b-af41-4491-9968-6a1666634498", "symbol": "V2RETAIL", "name": "V2 Retail Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.955, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.853, "architecture_energy": 12.618, "architecture_maturity": 39.76, "architecture_confidence": 83.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.94, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 46.92, "deceleration": 82.57, "rotation_down": 26.07, "downward_expansion": 22.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.658667, 222.440908, 222.592333, 217.265269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 219.440002, "trend_reference": 210.546333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 136.67907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.605513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.410806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103268, "excess_performance": 0.146977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.605513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103268, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4090688, "relative_activity": 0.90706, "balance": 1.733115, "dry_up": 0.756354, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083475, "annualized_volatility": 0.309125, "from_high_reference": -0.144317, "from_low_reference": 0.383956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 210.546333, "fair_value_reference": 136.67907, "structural_low": 172.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004998, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.00362, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.268232, "worst_return": -0.156763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.180379, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.061688, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.418776, "worst_return": -0.208927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176494, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.196316, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.60158, "worst_return": -0.287443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.296575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.21793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.061556, "worst_return": -0.468405, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.095726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135411, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003587, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.95, "volume": 576330, "typical_volume": 2815841.0, "trend": 10.026167, "fair_value": 11.605545, "relative_strength": 28.878726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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219.289993, "volume": 2947533, "typical_volume": 4605370.15, "trend": 211.383666, "fair_value": 134.032467, "relative_strength": 8.759402, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.79802, "energy": 17.554541, "activity_lines": [ 221.575331, 225.461998, 221.855952, 216.180107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.330002, "volume": 2151659, "typical_volume": 4495732.1, "trend": 210.566333, "fair_value": 135.355095, "relative_strength": 5.597309, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.889715, "energy": 17.425687, "activity_lines": [ 220.535332, 223.814181, 222.282095, 216.692774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.440002, "volume": 4090688, "typical_volume": 4509830.0, "trend": 210.546333, "fair_value": 136.67907, "relative_strength": 4.410806, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.85297, "energy": 12.617684, "activity_lines": [ 219.658667, 222.440908, 222.592333, 217.265269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }