{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68204b7a-5d7c-4e8f-96d8-ccb15bcc54ba", "symbol": "RB6", "name": "Rubix Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.246, "architecture_energy": 95.423, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.27, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 83.51, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.105533, 0.123691, 0.133586, 0.140748 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.095, "trend_reference": 0.149733, "distance_from_trend": -0.365539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.113913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.115225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366667, "excess_performance": -0.430372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.365539, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.351152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.226361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272683, "relative_activity": 1.238484, "balance": 0.226361, "dry_up": 2.972441, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11417, "annualized_volatility": 0.68133, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.043956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.149733, "fair_value_reference": 0.113913, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021978, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.002444, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.3875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063113, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.192771, "worst_return": -0.48125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.252292, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.38125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.155, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 126042.4, "trend": 0.1535, "fair_value": 0.116144, "relative_strength": 12.544661, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.987317, "energy": 20.781579, "activity_lines": [ 0.155, 0.151364, 0.150024, 0.152849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.125, "volume": 236485, "typical_volume": 127601.75, "trend": 0.153167, "fair_value": 0.115663, "relative_strength": -9.680429, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.769822, "energy": 34.301633, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.147455, 0.147333, 0.151011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 1359141, "typical_volume": 187042.7, "trend": 0.152, "fair_value": 0.115183, "relative_strength": -24.131732, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.983198, "energy": 83.661364, "activity_lines": [ 0.130333, 0.140182, 0.142976, 0.147903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.097, "volume": 749518, "typical_volume": 209881.85, "trend": 0.1509, "fair_value": 0.114651, "relative_strength": -31.601225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.217191, "energy": 96.375757, "activity_lines": [ 0.116333, 0.131818, 0.13819, 0.144355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.095, "volume": 272683, "typical_volume": 220174.85, "trend": 0.149733, "fair_value": 0.113913, "relative_strength": -35.115225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.246239, "energy": 95.42293, "activity_lines": [ 0.105533, 0.123691, 0.133586, 0.140748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }