{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6821d45a-d919-4376-862b-dd7a1bca4b1e", "symbol": "QBY0", "name": "q.beyond AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.8, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.892, "architecture_energy": 18.608, "architecture_maturity": 50.551, "architecture_confidence": 69.022, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.1, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 13.06, "deceleration": 46.7, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 60.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.526667, 3.498182, 3.560095, 3.607032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 3.681667, "distance_from_trend": -0.022182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.748718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.478396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086294, "excess_performance": -0.150934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71629, "relative_activity": 1.004291, "balance": 1.208443, "dry_up": 1.796007, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06453, "annualized_volatility": 0.293531, "from_high_reference": -0.245283, "from_low_reference": 0.139241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.681667, "fair_value_reference": 3.748718, "structural_low": 3.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.007952, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.027027, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.345196, "worst_return": -0.194361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07481, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.445614, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01007, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.084694, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.444805, "worst_return": -0.329054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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78.479882, "activity_lines": [ 3.376, 3.518182, 3.582429, 3.641183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.6, "volume": 289466, "typical_volume": 73184.0, "trend": 3.681333, "fair_value": 3.747692, "relative_strength": -10.164295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.127956, "energy": 65.471137, "activity_lines": [ 3.426667, 3.519273, 3.578476, 3.635828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.5, "volume": 69315, "typical_volume": 74000.8, "trend": 3.681333, "fair_value": 3.748462, "relative_strength": -12.974523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.778681, "energy": 56.351662, "activity_lines": [ 3.444, 3.502182, 3.566952, 3.624129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.5, "volume": 81976, "typical_volume": 71898.35, "trend": 3.683667, "fair_value": 3.748397, "relative_strength": -14.154481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.9888, "energy": 32.821287, "activity_lines": [ 3.466667, 3.488727, 3.557905, 3.61243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 71629, "typical_volume": 71322.95, "trend": 3.681667, "fair_value": 3.748718, "relative_strength": -13.478396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.891608, "energy": 18.60823, "activity_lines": [ 3.526667, 3.498182, 3.560095, 3.607032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }