{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6823eb97-8ac3-444d-9f64-d2ca0d136492", "symbol": "002017", "name": "Eastcompeace Technology Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.223, "architecture_energy": 66.182, "architecture_maturity": 82.786, "architecture_confidence": 94.641, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 22.37, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.91, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.309333, 13.752867, 15.223576, 16.553943 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.97, "trend_reference": 18.579175, "distance_from_trend": -0.248083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.899325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.769185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398881, "excess_performance": -0.406281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.463003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.422165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103531860, "relative_activity": 2.04875, "balance": 0.422165, "dry_up": 1.524558, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086427, "annualized_volatility": 0.358296, "from_high_reference": -0.615787, "from_low_reference": 0.144144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.579175, "fair_value_reference": 13.899325, "structural_low": 12.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.025545, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.020257, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.624757, "worst_return": -0.223684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.127794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065924, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.558535, "worst_return": -0.232777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.304, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.446878, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.587445, "worst_return": -0.122505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 48336150.7, "trend": 19.118175, "fair_value": 13.873, "relative_strength": -43.901136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.279479, "energy": 93.315584, "activity_lines": [ 13.027333, 14.112276, 15.819817, 17.224589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.61, "volume": 77521890, "typical_volume": 48348378.55, "trend": 18.856842, "fair_value": 13.881438, "relative_strength": -36.09225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.172001, "energy": 76.416367, "activity_lines": [ 13.072, 13.861177, 15.48784, 16.869223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.97, "volume": 103531860, "typical_volume": 50534163.75, "trend": 18.579175, "fair_value": 13.899325, "relative_strength": -36.769185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.222616, "energy": 66.181667, "activity_lines": [ 13.309333, 13.752867, 15.223576, 16.553943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }