{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68270eab-c39f-4028-bd5a-90932e803c4f", "symbol": "IHL", "name": "Interhides Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.724, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.132, "architecture_energy": 21.481, "architecture_maturity": 33.65, "architecture_confidence": 65.9, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.53, "rotation_up": 41.57, "upward_expansion": 26.46, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 17.13, "downward_expansion": 46.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.445333, 1.422727, 1.427714, 1.44071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.44, "trend_reference": 1.470333, "distance_from_trend": -0.02063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.726481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165934, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.85497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088608, "excess_performance": -0.280933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015116, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.433338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110100, "relative_activity": 0.734808, "balance": 1.433338, "dry_up": 1.099376, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037393, "annualized_volatility": 0.175723, "from_high_reference": -0.131035, "from_low_reference": 0.082707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.470333, "fair_value_reference": 1.726481, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.027322, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.024429, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.063492, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027174, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.076715, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.043478, "worst_return": -0.21, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.092823, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.126157, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023913, "worst_return": -0.306375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182666, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.275382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.028261, "worst_return": -0.37081, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018343, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.026972, "volume": 313600, "typical_volume": 462020.0, "trend": 2.46049, "fair_value": 3.08071, "relative_strength": -20.622115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"direction": -61.513558, "energy": 66.168166, "activity_lines": [ 1.381333, 1.401455, 1.422429, 1.450172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.44, "volume": 274000, "typical_volume": 167095.0, "trend": 1.486333, "fair_value": 1.738747, "relative_strength": -21.606472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.651156, "energy": 37.946198, "activity_lines": [ 1.403333, 1.404545, 1.422571, 1.446774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 218000, "typical_volume": 160520.0, "trend": 1.481333, "fair_value": 1.734815, "relative_strength": -20.761783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.656061, "energy": 18.176669, "activity_lines": [ 1.423333, 1.41, 1.424238, 1.44443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 56800, "typical_volume": 151135.0, "trend": 1.476333, "fair_value": 1.730595, "relative_strength": -18.787197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.119378, "energy": 19.318152, "activity_lines": [ 1.441333, 1.418, 1.427, 1.443054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.44, "volume": 110100, "typical_volume": 149835.0, "trend": 1.470333, "fair_value": 1.726481, "relative_strength": -18.85497, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.131653, "energy": 21.480732, "activity_lines": [ 1.445333, 1.422727, 1.427714, 1.44071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }