{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "682780c4-a5bb-45f1-9663-9c7eb11a2960",
    "symbol": "NKTX",
    "name": "Nkarta\u00a0Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 71.44,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -16.861,
    "architecture_energy": 36.585,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.146,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.35,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 48.67,
        "rotation_up": 17.5,
        "upward_expansion": 22.85,
        "deceleration": 50.89,
        "rotation_down": 59.08,
        "downward_expansion": 45.52
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.359333,
        2.569455,
        2.714333,
        2.671484
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 2.41,
    "trend_reference": 2.575667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.06432,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.631603,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336381,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.705529,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.193069,
    "excess_performance": 0.005616,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06432,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112759,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.336381,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.203833,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.097055,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.346289,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.193069,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.569552,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3398084,
      "relative_activity": 0.938463,
      "balance": 0.569552,
      "dry_up": 0.915387,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.227191,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.073219,
      "from_high_reference": -0.352151,
      "from_low_reference": 0.417647
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.575667,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.631603,
      "structural_low": 1.95,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.061042,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053155,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.187166,
        "worst_return": -0.079632,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.082653,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.076007,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.388889,
        "worst_return": -0.223583,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.109056,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.224725,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.394444,
        "worst_return": -0.612557,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.733538,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.894949,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.733538,
        "worst_return": -0.733538,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.079632,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.652727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018519,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.19697,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.075472,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010695,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.161111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.220588,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.216216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.072,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.144092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.196154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 2134948.1,
        "trend": 3.881667,
        "fair_value": 19.785449,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 3124025,
        "typical_volume": 3651671.45,
        "trend": 2.543333,
        "fair_value": 3.628718,
        "relative_strength": 0.539718,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.502729,
        "energy": 13.825066,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.870667,
          2.877273,
          2.848429,
          2.72929
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2.27,
        "volume": 3207192,
        "typical_volume": 3611249.8,
        "trend": 2.557667,
        "fair_value": 3.629487,
        "relative_strength": -10.561131,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.664405,
        "energy": 5.398815,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.662,
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          2.804,
          2.711656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.09,
        "volume": 3528822,
        "typical_volume": 3612253.5,
        "trend": 2.565,
        "fair_value": 3.62891,
        "relative_strength": -17.760524,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.340627,
        "energy": 32.775908,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.432667,
          2.630545,
          2.743524,
          2.681484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.41,
        "volume": 3398084,
        "typical_volume": 3620904.95,
        "trend": 2.575667,
        "fair_value": 3.631603,
        "relative_strength": -9.705529,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.861201,
        "energy": 36.585145,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.359333,
          2.569455,
          2.714333,
          2.671484
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}