{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68279023-d387-4862-bd37-cadf9a9c8c40", "symbol": "000906", "name": "Zhejiang Development Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.933, "architecture_energy": 31.106, "architecture_maturity": 43.966, "architecture_confidence": 61.765, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.38, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 15.43, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 41.43, "downward_expansion": 65.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.374, 5.350545, 5.58475, 5.693885 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.42, "trend_reference": 5.831196, "distance_from_trend": -0.070517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.34775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.567506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130016, "excess_performance": -0.137416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146154, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130016, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.22343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33573123, "relative_activity": 0.722034, "balance": 0.22343, "dry_up": 0.789949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070157, "annualized_volatility": 0.289383, "from_high_reference": -0.202604, "from_low_reference": 0.069034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.831196, "fair_value_reference": 6.34775, "structural_low": 5.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.020599, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": 0.002614, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.130125, "worst_return": -0.111288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014868, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273849, "worst_return": -0.132231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008029, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061689, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.087656, "worst_return": -0.207711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 38761062, "typical_volume": 47033918.3, "trend": 5.866863, "fair_value": 6.383173, "relative_strength": -14.552389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.594024, "energy": 50.837037, "activity_lines": [ 5.260667, 5.370267, 5.639044, 5.746448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.48, "volume": 30435082, "typical_volume": 46677899.6, "trend": 5.847863, "fair_value": 6.365297, "relative_strength": -7.697625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.932698, "energy": 40.561007, "activity_lines": [ 5.340667, 5.359488, 5.613302, 5.721489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.42, "volume": 33573123, "typical_volume": 46497971.9, "trend": 5.831196, "fair_value": 6.34775, "relative_strength": -12.567506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.932665, "energy": 31.105548, "activity_lines": [ 5.374, 5.350545, 5.58475, 5.693885 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }