{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68320b27-0773-4bfa-8513-3386b25698ff", "symbol": "APRJ", "name": "Innovator Premium Income 30 Barrier ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.991, "architecture_energy": 40.718, "architecture_maturity": 18.72, "architecture_confidence": 64.898, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.16, "rotation_up": 57.13, "upward_expansion": 71.28, "deceleration": 48.79, "rotation_down": 12.21, "downward_expansion": 12.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.834107, 24.790014, 24.79791, 24.75343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.891, "trend_reference": 24.668874, "distance_from_trend": 0.009004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.111409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.252009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020283, "excess_performance": -0.105342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020283, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.655221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11958, "relative_activity": 0.402649, "balance": 3.655221, "dry_up": 0.435369, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005592, "annualized_volatility": 0.026216, "from_high_reference": -0.008722, "from_low_reference": 0.046598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.668874, "fair_value_reference": 23.111409, "structural_low": 24.35669, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004262, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01806, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004277, "worst_return": 0.004247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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24.75586, 24.743294, 24.773676, 24.713814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.7752, "volume": 6920, "typical_volume": 29259.1, "trend": 24.633305, "fair_value": 23.063538, "relative_strength": -6.033072, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.34528, "energy": 21.676757, "activity_lines": [ 24.768022, 24.743335, 24.777347, 24.723988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.8497, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 29549.0, "trend": 24.651054, "fair_value": 23.087504, "relative_strength": -6.503326, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.043586, "energy": 28.972816, "activity_lines": [ 24.79934, 24.760917, 24.786565, 24.737949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.891, "volume": 11958, "typical_volume": 29698.35, "trend": 24.668874, "fair_value": 23.111409, "relative_strength": -9.252009, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.990596, "energy": 40.718, "activity_lines": [ 24.834107, 24.790014, 24.79791, 24.75343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }