{ "ticker": { "uuid": "683563ae-a4fa-448c-a4d0-35ab5bc47b97", "symbol": "OMER", "name": "OMER S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.425, "architecture_energy": 20.994, "architecture_maturity": 78.645, "architecture_confidence": 85.567, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 23.7, "upward_expansion": 8.25, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 42.73, "downward_expansion": 70.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.286, 3.288727, 3.309519, 3.337005 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.28, "trend_reference": 3.398574, "distance_from_trend": -0.034889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.583847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.252145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126845, "excess_performance": -0.297737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25700, "relative_activity": 0.492432, "balance": 1.061253, "dry_up": 0.499296, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059813, "annualized_volatility": 0.197523, "from_high_reference": -0.360552, "from_low_reference": 0.051282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.398574, "fair_value_reference": 3.583847, "structural_low": 3.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.046672, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.126866, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024099, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10967, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.257463, "worst_return": -0.1525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.160557, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006078, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.453191, "worst_return": -0.132076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-22.620826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.475199, "energy": 21.785305, "activity_lines": [ 3.316, 3.317818, 3.326548, 3.369213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.25, "volume": 49689, "typical_volume": 51142.4, "trend": 3.429418, "fair_value": 3.575579, "relative_strength": -24.696808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.210463, "energy": 23.076941, "activity_lines": [ 3.299333, 3.302182, 3.31881, 3.356425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.26, "volume": 10597, "typical_volume": 51303.2, "trend": 3.411597, "fair_value": 3.579382, "relative_strength": -24.258485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.832488, "energy": 20.877347, "activity_lines": [ 3.29, 3.292545, 3.312801, 3.345495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.28, "volume": 25700, "typical_volume": 52189.95, "trend": 3.398574, "fair_value": 3.583847, "relative_strength": -25.252145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.424872, "energy": 20.993532, "activity_lines": [ 3.286, 3.288727, 3.309519, 3.337005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }