{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6839dcb9-b7c1-40be-9cfe-ac601a10ced7", "symbol": "SHOC", "name": "STRIVE U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.626, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.686, "architecture_energy": 22.025, "architecture_maturity": 74.4, "architecture_confidence": 92.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.51, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 54.96, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 31.51, "downward_expansion": 18.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.265107, 107.929316, 106.886722, 100.837241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 108.3953, "trend_reference": 92.843606, "distance_from_trend": 0.167504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.848928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.940866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.75671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.427417, "excess_performance": 0.301792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.940866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.207567, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.427417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52605, "relative_activity": 0.546432, "balance": 0.959009, "dry_up": 0.661241, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098404, "annualized_volatility": 0.390994, "from_high_reference": -0.130359, "from_low_reference": 1.004907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.843606, "fair_value_reference": 55.848928, "structural_low": 67.7029, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111085, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053325, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.226845, "worst_return": 0.00353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.228767, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.692692, "worst_return": 0.084355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.124904, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124904, "worst_return": 0.124904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.963186, "energy": 71.200392, "activity_lines": [ 110.143168, 106.133181, 95.349204, 89.380402 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 122.449445, "volume": 89372, "typical_volume": 92320.45, "trend": 83.986676, "fair_value": 52.56451, "relative_strength": 51.094202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.823228, "energy": 73.371557, "activity_lines": [ 114.661066, 109.955322, 98.638251, 91.990782 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 114.149162, "volume": 181185, "typical_volume": 95565.55, "trend": 85.523374, "fair_value": 53.076185, "relative_strength": 42.518033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.395779, "energy": 64.380667, "activity_lines": [ 115.22171, 111.552809, 100.916455, 93.936748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 109.1211, "volume": 91572, "typical_volume": 95288.35, "trend": 86.822407, "fair_value": 53.561044, "relative_strength": 31.971429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.853069, "energy": 58.844029, "activity_lines": [ 113.671452, 111.7743, 102.533837, 95.459182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 113.1943, "volume": 144873, "typical_volume": 99842.6, "trend": 88.33913, "fair_value": 54.062485, "relative_strength": 33.630972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.099306, "energy": 53.89035, "activity_lines": [ 113.645222, 112.494352, 104.383176, 97.160595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.3885, "volume": 77478, "typical_volume": 98607.55, "trend": 89.52133, "fair_value": 54.502985, "relative_strength": 22.910002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.316262, "energy": 33.678051, "activity_lines": [ 109.855385, 111.118015, 105.130975, 98.131522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.71, "volume": 41508, "typical_volume": 97075.6, "trend": 90.686281, "fair_value": 54.94295, "relative_strength": 24.062558, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.946724, "energy": 23.574731, "activity_lines": [ 107.271884, 110.032901, 105.874153, 99.111436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.7247, "volume": 83040, "typical_volume": 97897.0, "trend": 91.683741, "fair_value": 55.365994, "relative_strength": 17.132106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.999241, "energy": 21.521306, "activity_lines": [ 104.54258, 108.221043, 106.081398, 99.759076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.3953, "volume": 52605, "typical_volume": 96270.05, "trend": 92.843606, "fair_value": 55.848928, "relative_strength": 20.75671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.685847, "energy": 22.025471, "activity_lines": [ 105.265107, 107.929316, 106.886722, 100.837241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }