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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.744, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.048, "architecture_energy": 59.598, "architecture_maturity": 4.416, "architecture_confidence": 85.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.23, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 34.78, "rotation_down": 60.72, "downward_expansion": 84.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.77, 124.347273, 125.917654, 127.018823 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 123.550003, "trend_reference": 127.397942, "distance_from_trend": -0.030204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.913546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.033473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044548, "excess_performance": -0.097859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030725, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 828557, "relative_activity": 0.910897, "balance": 1.356869, "dry_up": 0.873692, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037933, "annualized_volatility": 0.248295, "from_high_reference": -0.130053, "from_low_reference": 0.245194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.397942, "fair_value_reference": 99.913546, 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834422, "typical_volume": 978384.8, "trend": 127.159459, "fair_value": 99.390634, "relative_strength": -1.504185, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.045373, "energy": 50.444543, "activity_lines": [ 123.246667, 125.028183, 126.706999, 127.500771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.449997, "volume": 771024, "typical_volume": 960319.95, "trend": 127.310733, "fair_value": 99.655196, "relative_strength": -1.909728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.479588, "energy": 61.075154, "activity_lines": [ 122.766666, 124.700909, 126.294069, 127.261451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.550003, "volume": 828557, "typical_volume": 909605.7, "trend": 127.397942, "fair_value": 99.913546, "relative_strength": -4.033473, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.047697, "energy": 59.597894, "activity_lines": [ 122.77, 124.347273, 125.917654, 127.018823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }