{ "ticker": { "uuid": "683ffc60-15c0-469b-a31e-48e2c8430257", "symbol": "USAPA", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.282, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.103, "architecture_energy": 54.311, "architecture_maturity": 58.211, "architecture_confidence": 54.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.23, "rotation_up": 45.6, "upward_expansion": 72.45, "deceleration": 73.64, "rotation_down": 28.85, "downward_expansion": 12.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.833, 25.727909, 25.6005, 25.065151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.65, "trend_reference": 24.458333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.771897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.29269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149202, "excess_performance": 0.066319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024497, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003325, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.452405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 6.452405, "dry_up": 0.288554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018964, "annualized_volatility": 0.156186, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.231516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.458333, "fair_value_reference": 20.771897, "structural_low": 21.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024084, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.025105, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.076442, "worst_return": -0.035243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048747, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.031472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107024, "worst_return": -0.137643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129958, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.083599, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.187133, "worst_return": 0.036173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.225254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.133887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341411, "worst_return": 0.109097, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076157, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039813, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.061415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038719, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.718, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 91.0, "trend": 14.772467, "fair_value": 14.926265, "relative_strength": 12.591659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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25.574333, 25.748455, 25.056143, 24.593914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5605.2, "trend": 24.2605, "fair_value": 20.523275, "relative_strength": -1.021194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.276064, "energy": 47.149455, "activity_lines": [ 25.672667, 25.804455, 25.212952, 24.710538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.525, "volume": 459, "typical_volume": 5628.15, "trend": 24.309833, "fair_value": 20.584333, "relative_strength": -3.491703, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.532155, "energy": 43.222576, "activity_lines": [ 25.637, 25.747, 25.310786, 24.792118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.245001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4653.5, "trend": 24.341333, "fair_value": 20.643595, "relative_strength": -4.323288, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.188423, "energy": 40.757549, "activity_lines": [ 25.522334, 25.637727, 25.370429, 24.852452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.365, "volume": 5213, "typical_volume": 4914.15, "trend": 24.376833, "fair_value": 20.703628, "relative_strength": -3.843297, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.79108, "energy": 33.242994, "activity_lines": [ 25.473, 25.559546, 25.430833, 24.918495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4914.15, "trend": 24.458333, "fair_value": 20.771897, "relative_strength": -0.29269, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.102712, "energy": 54.310723, "activity_lines": [ 25.833, 25.727909, 25.6005, 25.065151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }