{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6844d3e5-f696-4e60-ad2c-0db7244d064e", "symbol": "MNDI", "name": "Mondi plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.064, "architecture_energy": 50.318, "architecture_maturity": 28.763, "architecture_confidence": 82.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.72, "rotation_up": 70.01, "upward_expansion": 41.93, "deceleration": 45.06, "rotation_down": 19.34, "downward_expansion": 23.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 838.32, 787.781818, 771.82381, 785.634025 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 921.6, "trend_reference": 810.852059, "distance_from_trend": 0.136582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1195.534349, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229131, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.535982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037422, "excess_performance": -0.013813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145069, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.324335, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5909724, "relative_activity": 1.128084, "balance": 1.324335, "dry_up": 1.311318, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054203, "annualized_volatility": 0.419147, "from_high_reference": -0.150393, "from_low_reference": 0.396364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 810.852059, "fair_value_reference": 1195.534349, "structural_low": 660.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022726, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.01562, "worst_return": -0.097677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.098673, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.092986, "worst_return": -0.104359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.209824, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183634, "worst_return": -0.236013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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5909724, "typical_volume": 5238724.6, "trend": 810.852059, "fair_value": 1195.534349, "relative_strength": -1.535982, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.064285, "energy": 50.318147, "activity_lines": [ 838.32, 787.781818, 771.82381, 785.634025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }