{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6845788f-9e17-4627-b60f-adfd9d26a70a", "symbol": "PKB", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.351, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.511, "architecture_energy": 16.6, "architecture_maturity": 14.405, "architecture_confidence": 58.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.08, "rotation_up": 18.16, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 65.7, "rotation_down": 55.45, "downward_expansion": 41.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.954493, 104.526829, 104.837677, 104.278467 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 105.53, "trend_reference": 103.752172, "distance_from_trend": 0.017135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.961787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.584876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011711, "excess_performance": -0.137336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.377611, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 814191, "relative_activity": 7.247609, "balance": 2.377611, "dry_up": 2.232555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048716, "annualized_volatility": 0.238411, "from_high_reference": -0.088766, "from_low_reference": 0.1966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.752172, "fair_value_reference": 79.961787, "structural_low": 92.869379, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009508, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.004491, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.123148, "worst_return": -0.063347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033266, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.181082, "worst_return": -0.104453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11247, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311881, "worst_return": 0.028771, 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87072.25, "trend": 103.129236, "fair_value": 79.059048, "relative_strength": -5.019801, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.551593, "energy": 13.647485, "activity_lines": [ 105.617906, 105.916968, 105.090522, 104.394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.41, "volume": 31431, "typical_volume": 79649.2, "trend": 103.357448, "fair_value": 79.359866, "relative_strength": -4.22702, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.629883, "energy": 16.028082, "activity_lines": [ 104.002993, 105.394759, 104.989484, 104.347598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.2899, "volume": 52488, "typical_volume": 77021.85, "trend": 103.533985, "fair_value": 79.643011, "relative_strength": -7.182749, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.476815, "energy": 26.217005, "activity_lines": [ 102.206753, 104.4796, 104.673115, 104.149692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.53, "volume": 814191, "typical_volume": 112339.25, "trend": 103.752172, "fair_value": 79.961787, "relative_strength": -5.584876, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.511174, "energy": 16.599588, "activity_lines": [ 102.954493, 104.526829, 104.837677, 104.278467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }