{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6846fe8f-591a-42c4-b853-3b1a74724739", "symbol": "3603", "name": "UC&GN International Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.382, "architecture_energy": 61.874, "architecture_maturity": 15.671, "architecture_confidence": 67.539, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.41, "rotation_up": 18.85, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 43.24, "rotation_down": 68.13, "downward_expansion": 63.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.741333, 7.001455, 7.537619, 7.644366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.62, "trend_reference": 7.530333, "distance_from_trend": -0.120889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.363718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.258971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079935, "excess_performance": -0.361437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085167, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100998, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55020, "relative_activity": 0.197924, "balance": 0.499478, "dry_up": 0.129197, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108994, "annualized_volatility": 0.684346, "from_high_reference": -0.545017, "from_low_reference": 0.285437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.530333, "fair_value_reference": 7.363718, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.121131, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121131, "worst_return": 0.121131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.197847, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.145307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197847, "worst_return": 0.197847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.213997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213997, "worst_return": 0.213997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.076716, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076716, "worst_return": 0.076716, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01194, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 9.2, "volume": 8073, "typical_volume": 81194.0, "trend": 8.913, "fair_value": 7.088205, "relative_strength": 0.066805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.503956, "energy": 9.14176, 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7.620667, 7.811636, 8.128429, 7.845054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.1, "volume": 47657, "typical_volume": 339882.55, "trend": 7.374333, "fair_value": 7.425192, "relative_strength": -22.073486, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.642592, "energy": 17.577517, "activity_lines": [ 7.407333, 7.640545, 8.037095, 7.830989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.61, "volume": 24240, "typical_volume": 329949.55, "trend": 7.416, "fair_value": 7.409872, "relative_strength": -28.285172, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.10041, "energy": 47.474189, "activity_lines": [ 7.084, 7.421273, 7.900286, 7.781677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 48170, "typical_volume": 322712.6, "trend": 7.441667, "fair_value": 7.395, "relative_strength": -25.641506, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.554318, "energy": 52.200654, "activity_lines": [ 6.896667, 7.252727, 7.774762, 7.735484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9, "volume": 16230, "typical_volume": 306099.3, "trend": 7.490667, "fair_value": 7.380256, "relative_strength": -24.490932, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.519648, "energy": 55.777247, "activity_lines": [ 6.844, 7.144364, 7.668429, 7.700538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.62, "volume": 55020, "typical_volume": 277985.9, "trend": 7.530333, "fair_value": 7.363718, "relative_strength": -29.258971, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.381813, "energy": 61.874373, "activity_lines": [ 6.741333, 7.001455, 7.537619, 7.644366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }