{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6848dd47-c072-4dd6-8e99-7123e16ea3f7", "symbol": "SPHD", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P 500 HIGH DIV LOW VOLATILITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.396, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.912, "architecture_energy": 58.037, "architecture_maturity": 15.613, "architecture_confidence": 71.262, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.33, "rotation_up": 68.77, "upward_expansion": 86.02, "deceleration": 47.86, "rotation_down": 13.57, "downward_expansion": 10.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.510456, 52.080135, 51.15998, 50.743563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.6, "trend_reference": 50.327303, "distance_from_trend": 0.045158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.630862, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.310457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037648, "excess_performance": -0.087976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04573, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043105, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.69891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4189809, "relative_activity": 1.107086, "balance": 1.69891, "dry_up": 1.104988, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028915, "annualized_volatility": 0.134809, "from_high_reference": -0.026647, "from_low_reference": 0.162557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.327303, "fair_value_reference": 44.630862, "structural_low": 47.882856, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007314, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.005125, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.076637, "worst_return": -0.09924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006986, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.058583, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106412, "worst_return": -0.080646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043712, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031062, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.068401, "worst_return": -0.030054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "up", "direction": 63.174825, "energy": 59.186753, "activity_lines": [ 51.368997, 50.818892, 50.195391, 50.045407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.654187, "volume": 3981715, "typical_volume": 3974663.55, "trend": 49.803475, "fair_value": 44.338045, "relative_strength": -0.694773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.515262, "energy": 72.981103, "activity_lines": [ 51.860097, 51.23921, 50.452947, 50.241799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.78, "volume": 2875817, "typical_volume": 3833331.25, "trend": 49.989433, "fair_value": 44.434352, "relative_strength": 0.218528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.681686, "energy": 73.515114, "activity_lines": [ 52.307717, 51.619128, 50.718338, 50.433833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.35, "volume": 5680133, "typical_volume": 3869465.85, "trend": 50.159752, "fair_value": 44.53286, "relative_strength": -1.562996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.78423, "energy": 61.537949, "activity_lines": [ 52.395789, 51.846107, 50.934505, 50.586128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.6, "volume": 4189809, "typical_volume": 3784536.8, "trend": 50.327303, "fair_value": 44.630862, "relative_strength": -4.310457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.911658, "energy": 58.036942, "activity_lines": [ 52.510456, 52.080135, 51.15998, 50.743563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }