{ "ticker": { "uuid": "684c4bbd-d68e-4e4b-a5fb-0e3d00c19eb7", "symbol": "COB", "name": "Cobalt Blue Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.26, "architecture_energy": 42.4, "architecture_maturity": 20.6, "architecture_confidence": 90.814, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.46, "rotation_up": 21.04, "upward_expansion": 19.06, "deceleration": 49.62, "rotation_down": 49.24, "downward_expansion": 71.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.069, 0.0688, 0.075162, 0.076729 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.078333, "distance_from_trend": -0.042553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.110206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.987556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027397, "excess_performance": -0.036308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3130562, "relative_activity": 0.560702, "balance": 0.763849, "dry_up": 0.430794, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115897, "annualized_volatility": 0.88393, "from_high_reference": -0.791667, "from_low_reference": 0.630435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.078333, "fair_value_reference": 0.110206, "structural_low": 0.064, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.459459, "median_excess_return": -0.019863, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.328947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.135741, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.019231, "worst_return": -0.441667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.147059, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.187746, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.633336, "worst_return": -0.604, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.392405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.487805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.408696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"relative_strength": -21.618715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.715685, "energy": 61.805389, "activity_lines": [ 0.065667, 0.069127, 0.076695, 0.077787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.067, "volume": 1398986, "typical_volume": 5653172.2, "trend": 0.0789, "fair_value": 0.112097, "relative_strength": -21.244512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.102414, "energy": 63.091049, "activity_lines": [ 0.066067, 0.068, 0.075538, 0.076981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 3130562, "typical_volume": 5583285.85, "trend": 0.078333, "fair_value": 0.110206, "relative_strength": -14.987556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.260459, "energy": 42.400283, "activity_lines": [ 0.069, 0.0688, 0.075162, 0.076729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }