{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68549cc4-f624-4dba-b587-74278487f30e", "symbol": "NOKI34", "name": "Nokia Oyj", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.987, "architecture_energy": 50.537, "architecture_maturity": 42.372, "architecture_confidence": 58.87, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.05, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 22.34, "deceleration": 56.94, "rotation_down": 71.38, "downward_expansion": 49.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.622173, 55.130798, 60.473549, 57.720152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.700001, "trend_reference": 52.541792, "distance_from_trend": -0.092151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.643524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.544642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.336545, "excess_performance": 0.393593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.643524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.852539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085446, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.527924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.336545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.734141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51984, "relative_activity": 4.480935, "balance": 1.734141, "dry_up": 1.599324, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176858, "annualized_volatility": 0.564532, "from_high_reference": -0.428879, "from_low_reference": 1.152504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.541792, "fair_value_reference": 29.023, "structural_low": 36.008045, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.064397, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.041501, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.152235, "worst_return": -0.251248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073893, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.763567, "worst_return": -0.165361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056075, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.336545, "worst_return": -0.142617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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5.075317, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.807327, "energy": 31.702694, "activity_lines": [ 54.769948, 61.708552, 62.840946, 58.348831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.400002, "volume": 13337, "typical_volume": 9311.6, "trend": 52.109694, "fair_value": 28.831169, "relative_strength": 3.216236, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.757201, "energy": 44.642384, "activity_lines": [ 50.838067, 58.014948, 61.603281, 58.004648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.700001, "volume": 51984, "typical_volume": 11601.15, "trend": 52.541792, "fair_value": 29.023, "relative_strength": 8.544642, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.987052, "energy": 50.53709, "activity_lines": [ 48.622173, 55.130798, 60.473549, 57.720152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }