{ "ticker": { "uuid": "685d72ca-b0e7-4fd6-888f-685c3bf74827", "symbol": "2613", "name": "China Container Terminal Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.736, "architecture_energy": 67.156, "architecture_maturity": 36.876, "architecture_confidence": 89.041, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.43, "rotation_up": 12.44, "upward_expansion": 14.76, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 70.35, "downward_expansion": 90.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.47, 20.885454, 21.366905, 21.83985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.5, "trend_reference": 22.427701, "distance_from_trend": -0.085952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.405598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.064169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111803, "excess_performance": -0.553175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193091, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 629987, "relative_activity": 0.437552, "balance": 0.728936, "dry_up": 0.834304, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052533, "annualized_volatility": 0.186403, "from_high_reference": -0.289442, "from_low_reference": 0.035354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.427701, "fair_value_reference": 25.405598, "structural_low": 19.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.004415, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": -0.03061, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.439282, "worst_return": -0.162524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033531, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.099206, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.232693, "worst_return": -0.183019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.134776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.437232, "worst_return": -0.197785, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.092417, "energy": 44.112608, "activity_lines": [ 21.303333, 21.552727, 21.881025, 22.282201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 1867841, "typical_volume": 1655087.85, "trend": 22.604668, "fair_value": 25.384153, "relative_strength": -37.759694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.248058, "energy": 69.779847, "activity_lines": [ 20.846666, 21.251818, 21.663809, 22.112004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4, "volume": 845682, "typical_volume": 1491840.9, "trend": 22.513716, "fair_value": 25.394409, "relative_strength": -37.242148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.787356, "energy": 70.823234, "activity_lines": [ 20.576666, 21.049091, 21.502143, 21.969768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.5, "volume": 629987, "typical_volume": 1439798.6, "trend": 22.427701, "fair_value": 25.405598, "relative_strength": -38.064169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.735908, "energy": 67.156254, "activity_lines": [ 20.47, 20.885454, 21.366905, 21.83985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }