{ "ticker": { "uuid": "685ef503-2a2e-4a1f-b83e-69f81f00170c", "symbol": "RAPT4", "name": "Randoncorp S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.4, "architecture_energy": 20.872, "architecture_maturity": 99.297, "architecture_confidence": 68.237, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.97, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 19.84, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 24.13, "downward_expansion": 56.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.886667, 4.808909, 4.914619, 5.077419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.99, "trend_reference": 5.397333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.650631, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.423163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.838808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.199037, "excess_performance": -0.141989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.423163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.068739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10564100, "relative_activity": 0.874108, "balance": 2.068739, "dry_up": 0.707649, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060583, "annualized_volatility": 0.404936, "from_high_reference": -0.289174, "from_low_reference": 0.141876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.397333, "fair_value_reference": 8.650631, "structural_low": 4.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.003851, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.014475, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.316184, "worst_return": -0.188811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.043665, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.079715, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.481297, "worst_return": -0.218796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050209, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.024354, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.437975, "worst_return": -0.290749, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084973, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.101813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019262, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058116, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013834, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.523481, "volume": 10127200, "typical_volume": 12038555.0, "trend": 9.032899, "fair_value": 9.648722, "relative_strength": 28.327831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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-27.448547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.453693, "energy": 77.209012, "activity_lines": [ 4.668667, 4.793636, 4.993905, 5.233634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.76, "volume": 9381100, "typical_volume": 15878800.0, "trend": 5.485667, "fair_value": 8.779856, "relative_strength": -24.146004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.023901, "energy": 67.65717, "activity_lines": [ 4.687333, 4.766909, 4.954, 5.185097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.83, "volume": 7888100, "typical_volume": 15013670.0, "trend": 5.461, "fair_value": 8.736169, "relative_strength": -22.099546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.466234, "energy": 46.303428, "activity_lines": [ 4.738667, 4.765455, 4.929714, 5.142796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 6376100, "typical_volume": 13474125.0, "trend": 5.442333, "fair_value": 8.692872, "relative_strength": -21.607716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.99969, "energy": 30.904864, "activity_lines": [ 4.808667, 4.777455, 4.917667, 5.106602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.99, "volume": 10564100, "typical_volume": 12085575.0, "trend": 5.397333, "fair_value": 8.650631, "relative_strength": -16.838808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.399869, "energy": 20.872096, "activity_lines": [ 4.886667, 4.808909, 4.914619, 5.077419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }