{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6867bd31-088f-4bb0-a7ce-58aec8c56757", "symbol": "TZL", "name": "TZ Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.535, "architecture_energy": 72.811, "architecture_maturity": 72.729, "architecture_confidence": 89.328, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 24.07, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 42.53, "rotation_down": 60.9, "downward_expansion": 87.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.026467, 0.027491, 0.029629, 0.031968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.0352, "distance_from_trend": -0.318182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03966, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.39486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.0096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454545, "excess_performance": -0.518251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.39486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.441688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30054, "relative_activity": 0.250682, "balance": 2.441688, "dry_up": 1.099812, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121795, "annualized_volatility": 0.723956, "from_high_reference": -0.586207, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0352, "fair_value_reference": 0.03966, "structural_low": 0.022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.020978, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.357895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.103679, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.098656, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.182, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.789474, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.12963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.4, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.023, "volume": 453554, "typical_volume": 645341.75, "trend": 0.035217, "fair_value": 0.090375, "relative_strength": -62.1589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.029, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 134001.35, "trend": 0.036533, "fair_value": 0.039692, "relative_strength": -28.059985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.704665, "energy": 46.441766, "activity_lines": [ 0.028533, 0.029091, 0.031167, 0.033415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 15629, "typical_volume": 128945.5, "trend": 0.0359, "fair_value": 0.039699, "relative_strength": -36.265883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.119598, "energy": 52.925661, "activity_lines": [ 0.027867, 0.028436, 0.030462, 0.032735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 30054, "typical_volume": 119888.85, "trend": 0.0352, "fair_value": 0.03966, "relative_strength": -42.0096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.534704, "energy": 72.811337, "activity_lines": [ 0.026467, 0.027491, 0.029629, 0.031968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }