{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68680a2c-049c-4072-899c-a5b5aee8eeac", "symbol": "XB28", "name": "Xtrackers Target Maturity Sept", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.398, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.908, "architecture_energy": 29.545, "architecture_maturity": 31.018, "architecture_confidence": 49.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.7, "rotation_up": 40.66, "upward_expansion": 64.3, "deceleration": 57.97, "rotation_down": 23.83, "downward_expansion": 14.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.927333, 35.927999, 35.876401, 35.83189 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.985001, "trend_reference": 35.80043, "distance_from_trend": 0.005156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.398439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.822797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003083, "excess_performance": -0.167808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005156, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.253146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6423, "relative_activity": 1.117529, "balance": 1.253146, "dry_up": 1.187908, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003836, "annualized_volatility": 0.019927, "from_high_reference": -0.006899, "from_low_reference": 0.026036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.80043, "fair_value_reference": 35.398439, "structural_low": 35.071872, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019552, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001254, "worst_return": 0.001254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-06-12", "close": 36.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 4825.75, "trend": 35.734919, "fair_value": 35.346433, "relative_strength": -13.408533, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.261815, "energy": 60.903747, "activity_lines": [ 35.882, 35.814068, 35.753039, 35.749558 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4053.65, "trend": 35.742228, "fair_value": 35.352878, "relative_strength": -15.474086, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.403677, "energy": 56.765131, "activity_lines": [ 35.894667, 35.832802, 35.764621, 35.758596 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 35.939999, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 4049.95, "trend": 35.751704, "fair_value": 35.359952, "relative_strength": -12.313873, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.5334, "energy": 54.816464, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.740919, "energy": 55.50566, "activity_lines": [ 35.936999, 35.919272, 35.835085, 35.807137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.834999, "volume": 3502, "typical_volume": 4991.8, "trend": 35.786608, "fair_value": 35.385644, "relative_strength": -11.845088, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.903164, "energy": 31.025537, "activity_lines": [ 35.904999, 35.910363, 35.841723, 35.810645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.924999, "volume": 16834, "typical_volume": 5626.75, "trend": 35.794093, "fair_value": 35.391773, "relative_strength": -11.820467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.305907, "energy": 24.395847, "activity_lines": [ 35.905666, 35.914999, 35.857002, 35.819573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.985001, "volume": 6423, "typical_volume": 5747.5, "trend": 35.80043, "fair_value": 35.398439, "relative_strength": -13.822797, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.907589, "energy": 29.545383, "activity_lines": [ 35.927333, 35.927999, 35.876401, 35.83189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }