{ "ticker": { "uuid": "686ecb07-b04b-4882-be04-df1c75abe7fb", "symbol": "CNEY", "name": "CN Energy Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.696, "architecture_energy": 16.266, "architecture_maturity": 37.455, "architecture_confidence": 55.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.59, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 11.94, "deceleration": 62.51, "rotation_down": 39.23, "downward_expansion": 61.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.615353, 0.599142, 0.69441, 0.713867 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6723, "trend_reference": 0.751743, "distance_from_trend": -0.105679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.090712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.962837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.727366, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.340882, "excess_performance": -0.528336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.962837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.497274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.340882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.326616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 926868, "relative_activity": 0.104825, "balance": 5.326616, "dry_up": 2.897795, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.648028, "annualized_volatility": 2.151139, "from_high_reference": -0.772102, "from_low_reference": 1.145867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.751743, "fair_value_reference": 18.090712, "structural_low": 0.3338, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.11828, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.138548, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.228801, "worst_return": -0.514632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.170336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.234971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.50734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.777653, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.856404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.668208, "worst_return": -0.887097, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.356927, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.915788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.421965, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292316, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 143.25, "volume": 2085059, "typical_volume": 4165162.6, "trend": 224.6425, "fair_value": 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"direction": -55.766598, "energy": 42.354871, "activity_lines": [ 0.52558, 0.701502, 0.726018, 0.746637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6816, "volume": 98770366, "typical_volume": 9567092.25, "trend": 0.751903, "fair_value": 20.910315, "relative_strength": -51.759949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.489175, "energy": 38.449435, "activity_lines": [ 0.5594, 0.678549, 0.721114, 0.742237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5781, "volume": 2243421, "typical_volume": 9627120.85, "trend": 0.753487, "fair_value": 19.966425, "relative_strength": -56.892136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.804047, "energy": 29.811171, "activity_lines": [ 0.56482, 0.63784, 0.707893, 0.731024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5666, "volume": 548663, "typical_volume": 9374684.0, "trend": 0.75134, "fair_value": 19.020057, "relative_strength": -56.706208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.11447, "energy": 24.846094, "activity_lines": [ 0.577407, 0.598305, 0.695087, 0.718966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6723, "volume": 926868, "typical_volume": 8842009.7, "trend": 0.751743, "fair_value": 18.090712, "relative_strength": -49.727366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.695652, "energy": 16.266142, "activity_lines": [ 0.615353, 0.599142, 0.69441, 0.713867 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }