{ "ticker": { "uuid": "687145d6-d2ba-44e7-a1a9-aa98bf886cdc", "symbol": "MNT", "name": "Royal Canadian Mint - Canadian Gold Reserves", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.77, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.074, "architecture_energy": 40.815, "architecture_maturity": 70.463, "architecture_confidence": 58.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.5, "rotation_up": 27.02, "upward_expansion": 18.53, "deceleration": 66.79, "rotation_down": 38.38, "downward_expansion": 66.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.690667, 59.404182, 60.875334, 62.798989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 61.66, "trend_reference": 65.631334, "distance_from_trend": -0.06051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.177115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.905256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176439, "excess_performance": -0.29686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176439, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.079306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130200, "relative_activity": 1.550277, "balance": 1.079306, "dry_up": 1.111806, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037389, "annualized_volatility": 0.2878, "from_high_reference": -0.235936, "from_low_reference": 0.245657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.631334, "fair_value_reference": 45.177115, "structural_low": 56.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032344, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036162, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086664, "worst_return": -0.022143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065691, "worst_return": 0.029738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.197743, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.112056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238227, "worst_return": 0.098979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.40534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.206167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042258, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.209999, "volume": 12400, "typical_volume": 32300.0, "trend": 26.644667, "fair_value": 24.830513, "relative_strength": 2.796267, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.321129, "energy": 86.938965, "activity_lines": [ 59.09, 60.149455, 62.471714, 64.524366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.849998, "volume": 71400, "typical_volume": 90865.0, "trend": 66.135, "fair_value": 44.541218, "relative_strength": -16.159599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.65569, "energy": 82.117258, "activity_lines": [ 58.656, 59.505273, 61.814381, 63.976602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.860001, "volume": 98300, "typical_volume": 88895.0, "trend": 65.932334, "fair_value": 44.745833, "relative_strength": -14.815738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.826727, "energy": 59.767195, "activity_lines": [ 58.658, 59.202, 61.339429, 63.507247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.080002, "volume": 73600, "typical_volume": 88465.0, "trend": 65.785667, "fair_value": 44.951474, "relative_strength": -13.983151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.808108, "energy": 56.333436, "activity_lines": [ 58.753334, 59.032182, 60.95281, 63.065162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.66, "volume": 130200, "typical_volume": 83985.0, "trend": 65.631334, "fair_value": 45.177115, "relative_strength": -12.905256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.073662, "energy": 40.815075, "activity_lines": [ 59.690667, 59.404182, 60.875334, 62.798989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }