{ "ticker": { "uuid": "687962a2-62a7-4c9f-819d-adda8ba2f974", "symbol": "CBUG", "name": "iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.655, "architecture_energy": 50.745, "architecture_maturity": 63.155, "architecture_confidence": 83.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.35, "rotation_up": 42.65, "upward_expansion": 67.88, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 20.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.102067, 6.110673, 6.017714, 5.899495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.205, "trend_reference": 5.7617, "distance_from_trend": 0.076939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.844163, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.818684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121656, "excess_performance": 0.057016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048187, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.054921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531210, "relative_activity": 0.706895, "balance": 1.054921, "dry_up": 0.79562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019116, "annualized_volatility": 0.123728, "from_high_reference": -0.002091, "from_low_reference": 0.294191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.7617, "fair_value_reference": 4.844163, "structural_low": 5.168, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008012, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042883, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028514, "worst_return": -0.047693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006359, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088803, "worst_return": -0.182652, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065596, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151158, "worst_return": -0.060718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003861, "active": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.998, "volume": 421703, "typical_volume": 735726.35, "trend": 5.736967, "fair_value": 4.830929, "relative_strength": 4.380978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.102604, "energy": 45.062553, "activity_lines": [ 6.064667, 6.086964, 5.98319, 5.869299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.205, "volume": 531210, "typical_volume": 751469.6, "trend": 5.7617, "fair_value": 4.844163, "relative_strength": 4.818684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.654808, "energy": 50.744587, "activity_lines": [ 6.102067, 6.110673, 6.017714, 5.899495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }