{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "687a2da3-e567-4ebf-a1b6-d99da2de4060",
    "symbol": "PNI",
    "name": "Pimco New York Municipal Income Fund II",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 84.806,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -10.46,
    "architecture_energy": 18.598,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.938,
    "architecture_confidence": 47.099,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.26,
        "rotation_up": 17.95,
        "upward_expansion": 16.66,
        "deceleration": 61.76,
        "rotation_down": 51.41,
        "downward_expansion": 36.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.8897,
        6.933267,
        6.947209,
        6.93234
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.93,
    "trend_reference": 6.916726,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.001919,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 6.630945,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0451,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.281071,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.002419,
    "excess_performance": -0.123206,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001919,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010888,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0451,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024983,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092811,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002419,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.547237,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 248378,
      "relative_activity": 0.94848,
      "balance": 0.547237,
      "dry_up": 1.0635,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 6
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01945,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.105955,
      "from_high_reference": -0.025321,
      "from_low_reference": 0.115566
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.916726,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.630945,
      "structural_low": 6.556792,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.015495,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018463,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.03544,
        "worst_return": -0.13137,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.036506,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.099503,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.065333,
        "worst_return": -0.193651,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.033707,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.099766,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.067773,
        "worst_return": -0.124662,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.160392,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.149389,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.0176,
        "worst_return": -0.199372,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.006177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04762,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015133,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.073476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.052687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00431,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -7.2e-05,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.009045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002928,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012418,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 6.621765,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 307303,
        "typical_volume": 255748.55,
        "trend": 6.907939,
        "fair_value": 6.623812,
        "relative_strength": -5.40064,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.291949,
        "energy": 25.868029,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.002296,
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          6.965151,
          6.942681
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.845,
        "volume": 292361,
        "typical_volume": 251871.95,
        "trend": 6.912482,
        "fair_value": 6.625216,
        "relative_strength": -6.586008,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.564978,
        "energy": 7.867539,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.949174,
          6.971954,
          6.957633,
          6.938621
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.8,
        "volume": 265951,
        "typical_volume": 259521.2,
        "trend": 6.914875,
        "fair_value": 6.627385,
        "relative_strength": -8.02511,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.2477,
        "energy": 21.844249,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.892083,
          6.939784,
          6.946057,
          6.931364
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.93,
        "volume": 248378,
        "typical_volume": 261869.65,
        "trend": 6.916726,
        "fair_value": 6.630945,
        "relative_strength": -9.281071,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.460069,
        "energy": 18.597998,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.8897,
          6.933267,
          6.947209,
          6.93234
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}