{ "ticker": { "uuid": "687e1f5c-369d-4e75-be4c-45d2685a8f72", "symbol": "BUND2S", "name": "Amundi German Bund Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.013, "architecture_energy": 69.829, "architecture_maturity": 5.637, "architecture_confidence": 63.144, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.12, "rotation_up": 73.18, "upward_expansion": 88.49, "deceleration": 45.17, "rotation_down": 11.0, "downward_expansion": 17.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.642334, 45.181273, 45.001548, 44.850043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.459999, "trend_reference": 44.5485, "distance_from_trend": 0.020461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.798622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.480656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040275, "excess_performance": -0.130617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003938, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.246031, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 522, "relative_activity": 0.235061, "balance": 1.246031, "dry_up": 1.28079, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015525, "annualized_volatility": 0.097586, "from_high_reference": -0.014845, "from_low_reference": 0.085223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.5485, "fair_value_reference": 41.798622, "structural_low": 42.650002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003421, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.022037, "regime_survival": 0.645161, "best_return": 0.124714, "worst_return": -0.077561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.004678, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.00035, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180007, "worst_return": -0.077944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035385, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.095426, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.147591, "worst_return": -0.012566, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 2372.65, "trend": 44.402, "fair_value": 41.682244, "relative_strength": -9.540221, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.6138, "energy": 17.706716, "activity_lines": [ 44.695667, 44.624637, 44.742405, 44.595409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.834999, "volume": 894, "typical_volume": 2405.25, "trend": 44.458333, "fair_value": 41.724712, "relative_strength": -8.144621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.398082, "energy": 46.735071, "activity_lines": [ 45.157334, 44.826818, 44.843643, 44.68786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.025002, "volume": 2415, "typical_volume": 2371.25, "trend": 44.512833, "fair_value": 41.764648, "relative_strength": -8.069893, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.938741, "energy": 70.969823, "activity_lines": [ 45.572001, 45.064637, 44.953095, 44.788936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.459999, "volume": 522, "typical_volume": 2220.7, "trend": 44.5485, "fair_value": 41.798622, "relative_strength": -11.480656, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.012515, "energy": 69.828885, "activity_lines": [ 45.642334, 45.181273, 45.001548, 44.850043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }