{ "ticker": { "uuid": "687e781e-bebd-43ef-9c51-8ffb35ab13a3", "symbol": "HRL-F64", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) DJ Industrial Average", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.802, "architecture_energy": 63.069, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.164, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.36, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.553333, 195.205455, 4819.972857, 8240.047957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 199.6, "trend_reference": 12221.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983668, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16796.575641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.825974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989417, "excess_performance": -1.018317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.998966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.717309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.153176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64127, "relative_activity": 3.332926, "balance": 2.153176, "dry_up": 2.794854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.121898, "annualized_volatility": 6.314712, "from_high_reference": -0.989674, "from_low_reference": 0.08952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12221.193333, "fair_value_reference": 16796.575641, "structural_low": 183.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.010789, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.018048, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.094449, "worst_return": -0.989703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007742, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047236, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134217, "worst_return": -0.989304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14913, "worst_return": -0.029572, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993757, "energy": 71.720616, "activity_lines": [ 194.273333, 2098.430909, 7850.960476, 10810.709032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.6, "volume": 47204, "typical_volume": 15353.75, "trend": 13476.613333, "fair_value": 16992.297436, "relative_strength": -98.934174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.63478, "energy": 67.5558, "activity_lines": [ 195.173333, 1142.670909, 6755.099524, 9913.128817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.8, "volume": 42797, "typical_volume": 17019.55, "trend": 12853.54, "fair_value": 16894.847436, "relative_strength": -98.864623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.234541, "energy": 66.926404, "activity_lines": [ 196.266667, 508.481818, 5744.992857, 9056.431183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 199.6, "volume": 64127, "typical_volume": 19240.45, "trend": 12221.193333, "fair_value": 16796.575641, "relative_strength": -98.825974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.802355, "energy": 63.069466, "activity_lines": [ 197.553333, 195.205455, 4819.972857, 8240.047957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }