{ "ticker": { "uuid": "688407ee-b566-4518-a1f6-d98c5f6c49d3", "symbol": "TMB", "name": "Tambourah Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.638, "architecture_energy": 56.114, "architecture_maturity": 83.97, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.33, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 9.88, "deceleration": 52.34, "rotation_down": 50.25, "downward_expansion": 80.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.030733, 0.0314, 0.033976, 0.038118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.031, "trend_reference": 0.043933, "distance_from_trend": -0.294385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.064078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.929989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.446429, "excess_performance": -0.510134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.294385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.446429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.196074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1263179, "relative_activity": 0.95448, "balance": 0.196074, "dry_up": 0.50007, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131514, "annualized_volatility": 0.818421, "from_high_reference": -0.859091, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.043933, "fair_value_reference": 0.064078, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.060606, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063236, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.297872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.258333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.265858, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.913043, "worst_return": -0.492958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148148, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.178452, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.130435, "worst_return": -0.619718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.472222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.034, "volume": 1355191, "typical_volume": 1996645.05, "trend": 0.046467, "fair_value": 0.070347, "relative_strength": -40.858088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.688921, "energy": 69.875865, "activity_lines": [ 0.0326, 0.0338, 0.037738, 0.042011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.031, "volume": 413564, "typical_volume": 1727431.65, "trend": 0.046, "fair_value": 0.069007, "relative_strength": -46.179899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.99558, "energy": 59.143945, "activity_lines": [ 0.032133, 0.033145, 0.036629, 0.041013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 527565, "typical_volume": 1581865.6, "trend": 0.045267, "fair_value": 0.06702, "relative_strength": -47.870781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.222, "energy": 55.879414, "activity_lines": [ 0.031467, 0.032436, 0.035571, 0.039981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 442907, "typical_volume": 1464591.15, "trend": 0.0446, "fair_value": 0.065193, "relative_strength": -49.109105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.04969, "energy": 59.599514, "activity_lines": [ 0.031, 0.0318, 0.034662, 0.038996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.031, "volume": 1263179, "typical_volume": 1323421.45, "trend": 0.043933, "fair_value": 0.064078, "relative_strength": -48.929989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.637778, "energy": 56.113805, "activity_lines": [ 0.030733, 0.0314, 0.033976, 0.038118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }