{ "ticker": { "uuid": "689133f1-27ee-4b44-8183-21f3014c4232", "symbol": "SYM", "name": "Symbotic Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.209, "architecture_energy": 40.498, "architecture_maturity": 45.263, "architecture_confidence": 95.995, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.01, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 5.11, "deceleration": 51.5, "rotation_down": 47.34, "downward_expansion": 76.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.312667, 41.673091, 44.783571, 47.099505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.18, "trend_reference": 50.466667, "distance_from_trend": -0.203831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.421571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.301088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327419, "excess_performance": -0.514872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13074583, "relative_activity": 1.420843, "balance": 0.519916, "dry_up": 0.895742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153674, "annualized_volatility": 0.520165, "from_high_reference": -0.542786, "from_low_reference": 0.052246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.466667, "fair_value_reference": 41.421571, "structural_low": 38.185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.077483, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.041789, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.317714, "worst_return": -0.397938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.115999, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035526, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.737714, "worst_return": -0.423778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.951208, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.855148, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.510408, "worst_return": -0.308534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.553773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 1.169568, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.961661, "worst_return": -0.439339, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.345976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068822, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.643143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.273289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149921, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177906, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211666, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087233, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 37.64, "volume": 5013581, "typical_volume": 4787020.2, "trend": 30.688333, "fair_value": 15.648207, "relative_strength": 50.374406, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"fair_value": 41.54234, "relative_strength": -33.729276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.141415, "energy": 61.529568, "activity_lines": [ 42.065333, 44.385545, 48.431143, 50.689161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.64, "volume": 8646520, "typical_volume": 8879392.8, "trend": 53.401667, "fair_value": 41.539327, "relative_strength": -33.181808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.874692, "energy": 43.872749, "activity_lines": [ 42.524667, 43.769818, 47.791238, 50.021118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.25, "volume": 6566077, "typical_volume": 8873665.0, "trend": 52.81, "fair_value": 41.52375, "relative_strength": -33.557543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.00279, "energy": 43.682585, "activity_lines": [ 42.212667, 42.996818, 46.972071, 49.23714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.15, "volume": 5623090, "typical_volume": 8853809.4, "trend": 52.215333, "fair_value": 41.510737, "relative_strength": -33.777777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.302232, "energy": 42.942365, "activity_lines": [ 41.559333, 42.224545, 46.112571, 48.420366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.05, "volume": 7706680, "typical_volume": 8856403.6, "trend": 51.488, "fair_value": 41.443045, "relative_strength": -28.926518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.930757, "energy": 36.832149, "activity_lines": [ 41.974667, 42.109909, 45.569548, 47.829054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.18, "volume": 13074583, "typical_volume": 9201988.85, "trend": 50.466667, "fair_value": 41.421571, "relative_strength": -36.301088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.208916, "energy": 40.498312, "activity_lines": [ 41.312667, 41.673091, 44.783571, 47.099505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }