{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6894c8d0-4fe8-4704-ab13-b9619b7d5e08", "symbol": "CLVT", "name": "CLARIVATE PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.218, "architecture_energy": 57.402, "architecture_maturity": 32.918, "architecture_confidence": 91.431, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.74, "rotation_up": 15.97, "upward_expansion": 13.8, "deceleration": 36.19, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 84.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.01, 2.124909, 2.262286, 2.314538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 2.383667, "distance_from_trend": -0.23647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.052179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.639759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.815051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157407, "excess_performance": -0.283032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.639759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.458151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31480834, "relative_activity": 1.035435, "balance": 0.65559, "dry_up": 0.949041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218998, "annualized_volatility": 0.863493, "from_high_reference": -0.600439, "from_low_reference": 0.096386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.383667, "fair_value_reference": 5.052179, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.005886, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.543478, "median_excess_return": -0.048062, "regime_survival": 0.847826, "best_return": 0.270588, "worst_return": -0.264516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.110403, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.121296, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.287037, "worst_return": -0.373913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.217072, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.226062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.032353, "worst_return": -0.280288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.179385, "energy": 25.43348, "activity_lines": [ 2.250667, 2.262545, 2.35719, 2.386667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.98, "volume": 36598572, "typical_volume": 30292930.05, "trend": 2.438, "fair_value": 5.08609, "relative_strength": -39.98375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.033657, "energy": 40.514192, "activity_lines": [ 2.152, 2.204, 2.315952, 2.354409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 31480834, "typical_volume": 30403490.35, "trend": 2.383667, "fair_value": 5.052179, "relative_strength": -45.815051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.217962, "energy": 57.401745, "activity_lines": [ 2.01, 2.124909, 2.262286, 2.314538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }