{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68980673-cf3c-4a66-b6a8-cae93b08cc9d", "symbol": "EPSN", "name": "Epsilon Energy Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.52, "architecture_energy": 16.803, "architecture_maturity": 24.462, "architecture_confidence": 56.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.87, "rotation_up": 48.97, "upward_expansion": 53.38, "deceleration": 61.07, "rotation_down": 12.62, "downward_expansion": 22.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.646667, 5.554728, 5.645906, 5.652532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.71, "trend_reference": 5.518966, "distance_from_trend": 0.034614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.318031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.575267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.204581, "excess_performance": 0.017127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061674, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385273, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 555128, "relative_activity": 0.614237, "balance": 1.385273, "dry_up": 0.733318, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077075, "annualized_volatility": 0.33761, "from_high_reference": -0.131151, "from_low_reference": 0.391004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.518966, "fair_value_reference": 5.318031, "structural_low": 4.593633, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.098101, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045867, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.152947, "worst_return": -0.110106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058822, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002273, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.270092, "worst_return": -0.184982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004202, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06051, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.300072, "worst_return": -0.137041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.315594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196053, "worst_return": -0.125902, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158537, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"close": 5.52, "volume": 717056, "typical_volume": 1045550.75, "trend": 5.392335, "fair_value": 5.307862, "relative_strength": -5.563245, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.407093, "energy": 27.908207, "activity_lines": [ 5.388, 5.470923, 5.663067, 5.597675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.83, "volume": 675782, "typical_volume": 998373.8, "trend": 5.430289, "fair_value": 5.312372, "relative_strength": 1.818591, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.836038, "energy": 14.049655, "activity_lines": [ 5.540667, 5.513572, 5.669369, 5.625911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 703033, "typical_volume": 963051.55, "trend": 5.467093, "fair_value": 5.313953, "relative_strength": -2.192545, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.09771, "energy": 10.923581, "activity_lines": [ 5.581333, 5.519447, 5.652533, 5.63686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.71, "volume": 555128, "typical_volume": 903768.65, "trend": 5.518966, "fair_value": 5.318031, "relative_strength": -4.575267, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.52037, "energy": 16.802509, "activity_lines": [ 5.646667, 5.554728, 5.645906, 5.652532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }