{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68984245-90d9-433e-9003-fc24a3025c35", "symbol": "SGAS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.505, "architecture_energy": 63.547, "architecture_maturity": 80.106, "architecture_confidence": 71.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 52.05, "upward_expansion": 81.89, "deceleration": 71.25, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 10.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.701467, 13.649164, 13.448114, 13.124232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.01, "trend_reference": 12.7476, "distance_from_trend": 0.09903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.822418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294535, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.258211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.165557, "excess_performance": 0.100918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042582, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.961822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1118721, "relative_activity": 0.814685, "balance": 1.961822, "dry_up": 0.893754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020645, "annualized_volatility": 0.132201, "from_high_reference": -0.005762, "from_low_reference": 0.249331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.7476, "fair_value_reference": 10.822418, "structural_low": 11.356, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.019928, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010246, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.083071, "worst_return": -0.11245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035008, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.044299, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.13404, "worst_return": -0.191206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071791, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.070493, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.21057, "worst_return": -0.087999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 64.178093, "energy": 63.891079, "activity_lines": [ 13.638267, 13.573709, 13.230086, 12.92526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.592, "volume": 992633, "typical_volume": 1561784.25, "trend": 12.651067, "fair_value": 10.749668, "relative_strength": 6.523432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.824252, "energy": 63.254467, "activity_lines": [ 13.629333, 13.587055, 13.301638, 12.988985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.432, "volume": 1196862, "typical_volume": 1485969.75, "trend": 12.6946, "fair_value": 10.783886, "relative_strength": 2.901927, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.895069, "energy": 55.240738, "activity_lines": [ 13.568533, 13.565636, 13.350914, 13.039368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.01, "volume": 1118721, "typical_volume": 1373195.1, "trend": 12.7476, "fair_value": 10.822418, "relative_strength": 4.258211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.505438, "energy": 63.546843, "activity_lines": [ 13.701467, 13.649164, 13.448114, 13.124232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }