{ "ticker": { "uuid": "689fcea2-87f0-4b44-9092-02b1aadcad68", "symbol": "CNTY", "name": "Century Casinos Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.034, "architecture_energy": 59.012, "architecture_maturity": 83.331, "architecture_confidence": 91.629, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.25, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 11.86, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 64.9, "downward_expansion": 85.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.242, 1.306905, 1.347935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.21, "trend_reference": 1.409667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.689712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.550138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.432207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224359, "excess_performance": -0.411813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042563, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.550138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.246672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 944338, "relative_activity": 2.698311, "balance": 0.246672, "dry_up": 1.103743, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112276, "annualized_volatility": 0.376924, "from_high_reference": -0.575439, "from_low_reference": 0.061404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.409667, "fair_value_reference": 2.689712, "structural_low": 1.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.002853, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.487179, "median_excess_return": -0.051686, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.240343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.064194, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.092081, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.788618, "worst_return": -0.338415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041096, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047122, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.508772, "worst_return": -0.362256, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.432749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.18, "volume": 344291, "typical_volume": 342247.6, "trend": 1.435333, "fair_value": 2.809647, "relative_strength": -39.692758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.397813, "energy": 69.197484, "activity_lines": [ 1.252, 1.307455, 1.356381, 1.392774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.17, "volume": 153285, "typical_volume": 342572.1, "trend": 1.427667, "fair_value": 2.768365, "relative_strength": -38.036793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.162817, "energy": 72.796121, "activity_lines": [ 1.212667, 1.277636, 1.336333, 1.375656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.21, "volume": 103211, "typical_volume": 329645.6, "trend": 1.422, "fair_value": 2.727404, "relative_strength": -35.263565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.118211, "energy": 66.920431, "activity_lines": [ 1.202667, 1.258909, 1.321381, 1.361613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.21, "volume": 944338, "typical_volume": 349973.75, "trend": 1.409667, "fair_value": 2.689712, "relative_strength": -37.432207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.03366, "energy": 59.011667, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.242, 1.306905, 1.347935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }