{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68a175e6-e89e-48ff-9b10-177c5717a420", "symbol": "IMC", "name": "IMC Exploration Group Public Limited Company", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.965, "architecture_energy": 88.281, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.51, "rotation_up": 17.61, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 74.75, "downward_expansion": 99.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009083, 0.009682, 0.01094, 0.012207 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00825, "trend_reference": 0.01305, "distance_from_trend": -0.367816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.009892, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.17677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.554054, "excess_performance": -0.605289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.367816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118731, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.457088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.554054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.123013, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 432067, "relative_activity": 0.433273, "balance": 0.123013, "dry_up": 0.549764, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162238, "annualized_volatility": 0.562218, "from_high_reference": -0.708481, "from_low_reference": 0.755319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.01305, "fair_value_reference": 0.009892, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.030682, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.056965, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.692982, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.1178, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.194438, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.081967, "worst_return": -0.521739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.130504, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.395604, "worst_return": -0.62069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.010367, 0.01105, 0.01253, 0.013116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01, "volume": 179967, "typical_volume": 1051637.65, "trend": 0.012708, "fair_value": 0.009782, "relative_strength": -4.129831, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.577068, "energy": 68.598468, "activity_lines": [ 0.01015, 0.010782, 0.01214, 0.012949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 1000952.1, "trend": 0.01285, "fair_value": 0.009826, "relative_strength": -5.946077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.979849, "energy": 80.458752, "activity_lines": [ 0.010067, 0.01055, 0.011794, 0.012775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00875, "volume": 1570901, "typical_volume": 1026997.15, "trend": 0.01295, "fair_value": 0.009863, "relative_strength": -19.057134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.846796, "energy": 86.042263, "activity_lines": [ 0.009583, 0.010127, 0.011369, 0.01251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00825, "volume": 432067, "typical_volume": 997216.4, "trend": 0.01305, "fair_value": 0.009892, "relative_strength": -24.17677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.965038, "energy": 88.280828, "activity_lines": [ 0.009083, 0.009682, 0.01094, 0.012207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }