{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68a207f5-2a5f-4a21-a749-924156c82616", "symbol": "HUBB", "name": "Hubbell Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.382, "architecture_energy": 12.983, "architecture_maturity": 29.946, "architecture_confidence": 85.437, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.82, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 7.23, "deceleration": 49.04, "rotation_down": 43.92, "downward_expansion": 71.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 492.446667, 493.693636, 494.085316, 495.014069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 513.99, "trend_reference": 495.674216, "distance_from_trend": 0.036951, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 402.603821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276664, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.495302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026125, "excess_performance": -0.0995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036951, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772346, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2979102, "relative_activity": 1.008264, "balance": 0.772346, "dry_up": 1.057549, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069092, "annualized_volatility": 0.307081, "from_high_reference": -0.088362, "from_low_reference": 0.284393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 495.674216, "fair_value_reference": 402.603821, "structural_low": 452.124419, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.043739, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020847, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229619, "worst_return": -0.078745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.101085, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.04749, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.487124, "worst_return": -0.087501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.114471, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.097413, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.407505, "worst_return": -0.015714, 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"activity_lines": [ 489.944667, 492.282728, 494.478226, 495.099533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 472.55, "volume": 5158271, "typical_volume": 2999494.3, "trend": 494.135384, "fair_value": 401.201596, "relative_strength": -7.186938, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.410136, "energy": 33.809989, "activity_lines": [ 482.806667, 489.211455, 492.324073, 493.733126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 513.99, "volume": 2979102, "typical_volume": 2954683.8, "trend": 495.674216, "fair_value": 402.603821, "relative_strength": -2.495302, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.38217, "energy": 12.983453, "activity_lines": [ 492.446667, 493.693636, 494.085316, 495.014069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }