{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68a2f094-8bc5-4356-a1af-31f8b413ad1b", "symbol": "JFU", "name": "9F Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.144, "architecture_energy": 49.476, "architecture_maturity": 55.64, "architecture_confidence": 86.633, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.05, "rotation_up": 20.64, "upward_expansion": 6.77, "deceleration": 50.57, "rotation_down": 60.76, "downward_expansion": 82.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.2568, 2.365164, 2.672318, 2.977339 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.4664, "trend_reference": 3.536553, "distance_from_trend": -0.302598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.773071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.805297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4673, "excess_performance": -0.654754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.831892, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20812, "relative_activity": 0.68224, "balance": 1.831892, "dry_up": 0.404469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.235388, "annualized_volatility": 0.747888, "from_high_reference": -0.739831, "from_low_reference": 0.561013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.536553, "fair_value_reference": 2.773071, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.016858, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.018692, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.473054, "worst_return": -0.50482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.085271, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.185155, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.093254, "worst_return": -0.703264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.17114, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.138772, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336797, "worst_return": -0.792381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.339702, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.487903, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.178571, "worst_return": -0.847054, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.201278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.340909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.36875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.382358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.920417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.319048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.145717, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.95, "volume": 31713, "typical_volume": 86137.45, "trend": 3.367043, "fair_value": 19.4104, "relative_strength": -37.257173, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"close": 2.26, "volume": 5283, "typical_volume": 29677.05, "trend": 3.79334, "fair_value": 2.795919, "relative_strength": -46.437637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.442743, "energy": 57.035984, "activity_lines": [ 2.308, 2.497255, 2.81571, 3.170261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 9331, "typical_volume": 29729.5, "trend": 3.69334, "fair_value": 2.78303, "relative_strength": -52.148445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.12798, "energy": 61.154293, "activity_lines": [ 2.190667, 2.379636, 2.71771, 3.056497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.4664, "volume": 20812, "typical_volume": 30505.4, "trend": 3.536553, "fair_value": 2.773071, "relative_strength": -44.805297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.14413, "energy": 49.47623, "activity_lines": [ 2.2568, 2.365164, 2.672318, 2.977339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }