{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68a55792-b1a6-4fb2-a58a-07324d0d806a", "symbol": "601279", "name": "Changchun Engley Automobile Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.766, "architecture_energy": 59.215, "architecture_maturity": 96.17, "architecture_confidence": 95.826, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 28.45, "upward_expansion": 10.94, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 52.45, "downward_expansion": 84.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.084, 3.104545, 3.326238, 3.54686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 3.875, "distance_from_trend": -0.184516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.379209, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.786335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294643, "excess_performance": -0.251439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54185000, "relative_activity": 1.157241, "balance": 0.293014, "dry_up": 1.28579, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073028, "annualized_volatility": 0.238809, "from_high_reference": -0.503145, "from_low_reference": 0.101045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.875, "fair_value_reference": 4.379209, "structural_low": 2.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.021825, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.009852, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.283423, "worst_return": -0.192053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.142222, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010599, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.296062, "worst_return": -0.318014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071633, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090654, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.296296, "worst_return": -0.22102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 48974664.3, "trend": 4.093667, "fair_value": 4.430519, "relative_strength": -25.079029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.970924, "energy": 88.22531, "activity_lines": [ 3.07, 3.214, 3.489333, 3.72914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.92, "volume": 65228415, "typical_volume": 49063173.0, "trend": 4.018667, "fair_value": 4.412432, "relative_strength": -28.092902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.780049, "energy": 77.256911, "activity_lines": [ 3.01, 3.134727, 3.413524, 3.653419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.15, "volume": 53718953, "typical_volume": 49126282.35, "trend": 3.943, "fair_value": 4.395693, "relative_strength": -22.347285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.902366, "energy": 65.251647, "activity_lines": [ 3.048667, 3.113455, 3.366667, 3.597376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.16, "volume": 54185000, "typical_volume": 46822553.3, "trend": 3.875, "fair_value": 4.379209, "relative_strength": -23.786335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.765543, "energy": 59.215301, "activity_lines": [ 3.084, 3.104545, 3.326238, 3.54686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }