{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68a6bada-264a-4193-aa71-a5a1d10d8f74", "symbol": "AMB", "name": "Ambromobiliare S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.334, "architecture_energy": 86.36, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 24.72, "upward_expansion": 21.06, "deceleration": 37.49, "rotation_down": 64.48, "downward_expansion": 96.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.408, 0.425727, 0.496762, 0.545935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.442, "trend_reference": 0.6061, "distance_from_trend": -0.270747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.094026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.595988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.766433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398639, "excess_performance": -0.569531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.595988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.487664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167000, "relative_activity": 4.819625, "balance": 0.506403, "dry_up": 3.181818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08023, "annualized_volatility": 0.431643, "from_high_reference": -0.583019, "from_low_reference": 0.194595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6061, "fair_value_reference": 1.094026, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.010152, "positive_rate": 0.404255, "directional_follow_through": 0.553191, "median_excess_return": -0.014043, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.724638, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.045074, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.091365, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.838235, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.116905, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.522843, "worst_return": -0.29, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.223077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.388841, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.037037, "worst_return": -0.588119, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2022-04-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-04-08", "end": "2022-04-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-29", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.206704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.218045, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.424533, 0.473782, 0.547538, 0.58963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.39, "volume": 65400, "typical_volume": 27340.0, "trend": 0.630033, "fair_value": 1.106192, "relative_strength": -54.933134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.706488, "energy": 92.40932, "activity_lines": [ 0.408133, 0.451218, 0.527795, 0.573338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.38, "volume": 9800, "typical_volume": 26990.0, "trend": 0.6167, "fair_value": 1.100038, "relative_strength": -55.491383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.928384, "energy": 92.293284, "activity_lines": [ 0.3944, 0.430836, 0.508576, 0.557206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.442, "volume": 167000, "typical_volume": 34650.0, "trend": 0.6061, "fair_value": 1.094026, "relative_strength": -48.766433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.334255, "energy": 86.359557, "activity_lines": [ 0.408, 0.425727, 0.496762, 0.545935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }