{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68aab06d-7438-4b43-8a2e-1cbd74168a36", "symbol": "CLNXN", "name": "Cellnex Telecom, S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.89, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.214, "architecture_energy": 30.764, "architecture_maturity": 19.642, "architecture_confidence": 57.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.93, "rotation_up": 46.56, "upward_expansion": 29.97, "deceleration": 51.71, "rotation_down": 18.47, "downward_expansion": 32.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 571.422525, 569.205926, 572.650482, 574.380723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 571.919983, "trend_reference": 572.552883, "distance_from_trend": -0.001105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 643.348372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.970188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099254, "excess_performance": 0.153921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111026, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099254, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005501, "annualized_volatility": 0.275853, "from_high_reference": -0.221193, "from_low_reference": 0.099254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 572.552883, "fair_value_reference": 643.348372, "structural_low": 520.280029, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001735, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.23395, "worst_return": -0.216978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033592, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233984, "worst_return": -0.244353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.204635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207593, "worst_return": -0.386179, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044354, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", 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"activity_lines": [ 564.221323, 569.36242, 574.298803, 573.814567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 571.919983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.3, "trend": 569.160781, "fair_value": 645.427123, "relative_strength": -8.005375, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.356694, "energy": 61.467481, "activity_lines": [ 566.933538, 568.795024, 573.676866, 574.065529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 571.919983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.3, "trend": 570.291481, "fair_value": 644.734206, "relative_strength": -6.852086, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.495937, "energy": 47.754999, "activity_lines": [ 568.930462, 568.57981, 573.194833, 574.243542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 571.919983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.3, "trend": 571.422182, "fair_value": 644.041289, "relative_strength": -6.7772, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.985556, "energy": 22.306365, "activity_lines": [ 570.427608, 568.716777, 572.852705, 574.348606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 571.919983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.3, "trend": 572.552883, "fair_value": 643.348372, "relative_strength": -5.970188, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.214146, "energy": 30.763946, "activity_lines": [ 571.422525, 569.205926, 572.650482, 574.380723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }