{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68ab58e5-1f1f-4a55-be13-7672c766be33", "symbol": "KIAT", "name": "Kiattana Transport Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.975, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.828, "architecture_energy": 19.133, "architecture_maturity": 37.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.99, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 53.72, "deceleration": 89.97, "rotation_down": 25.91, "downward_expansion": 17.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.334, 0.336, 0.331048, 0.3286 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.326429, "distance_from_trend": 0.041576, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.314458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.878211, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060607, "excess_performance": -0.131718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103937, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048407, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060607, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.302222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7728000, "relative_activity": 2.704249, "balance": 12.302222, "dry_up": 1.359499, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049774, "annualized_volatility": 0.197052, "from_high_reference": -0.028571, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.326429, "fair_value_reference": 0.314458, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006267, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.064516, "worst_return": -0.043479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.044329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.044329, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.044329, "worst_return": -0.044329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"relative_strength": -7.059975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.596416, "energy": 60.304681, "activity_lines": [ 0.341333, 0.336909, 0.328144, 0.326661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.33, "volume": 1414300, "typical_volume": 4603895.0, "trend": 0.324829, "fair_value": 0.315095, "relative_strength": -10.570375, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.590335, "energy": 36.50401, "activity_lines": [ 0.338, 0.336727, 0.328571, 0.327056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.33, "volume": 2962300, "typical_volume": 2857190.0, "trend": 0.325467, "fair_value": 0.314843, "relative_strength": -10.648577, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.034322, "energy": 21.787104, "activity_lines": [ 0.334667, 0.336182, 0.329, 0.32739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.33, "volume": 3435700, "typical_volume": 2623740.0, "trend": 0.325781, "fair_value": 0.314592, "relative_strength": -9.421223, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.141075, "energy": 18.041546, "activity_lines": [ 0.332, 0.335273, 0.329524, 0.327682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 7728000, "typical_volume": 2857725.0, "trend": 0.326429, "fair_value": 0.314458, "relative_strength": -5.878211, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.827624, "energy": 19.132511, "activity_lines": [ 0.334, 0.336, 0.331048, 0.3286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }