{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68b24170-c87b-4c24-92e2-615e43709f69", "symbol": "UNIC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Disruptive Technology UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.128, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.866, "architecture_energy": 20.426, "architecture_maturity": 59.341, "architecture_confidence": 78.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.81, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 59.68, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 18.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.523733, 18.785818, 18.560381, 17.872138 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.232, "trend_reference": 17.044467, "distance_from_trend": 0.069673, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.107143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.949153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191946, "excess_performance": 0.021054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191946, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.122401, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228121, "relative_activity": 4.209414, "balance": 1.122401, "dry_up": 3.719047, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074219, "annualized_volatility": 0.245787, "from_high_reference": -0.139797, "from_low_reference": 0.270877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.044467, "fair_value_reference": 15.107143, "structural_low": 14.346, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 13.238, "volume": 26300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 13.304, "volume": 40156, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 13.338, "volume": 87291, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"energy": 51.001654, "activity_lines": [ 18.949733, 19.024291, 18.2568, 17.538267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.507999, "volume": 137832, "typical_volume": 26621.55, "trend": 16.897467, "fair_value": 15.051709, "relative_strength": 5.329177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.243431, "energy": 48.23703, "activity_lines": [ 19.092533, 19.121418, 18.462086, 17.714602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.08, "volume": 347876, "typical_volume": 43090.1, "trend": 16.972733, "fair_value": 15.078991, "relative_strength": -2.993097, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.673693, "energy": 26.724856, "activity_lines": [ 18.753866, 18.933236, 18.510829, 17.790895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.232, "volume": 228121, "typical_volume": 54193.05, "trend": 17.044467, "fair_value": 15.107143, "relative_strength": -4.949153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.866389, "energy": 20.42616, "activity_lines": [ 18.523733, 18.785818, 18.560381, 17.872138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }