{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68b750e7-1423-4ef2-b4b6-77dbca2db4f3", "symbol": "BONG", "name": "Bong AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.017, "architecture_energy": 86.481, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.747, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.46, "rotation_up": 9.96, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 37.51, "rotation_down": 79.27, "downward_expansion": 96.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.334067, 0.380091, 0.487771, 0.529873 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.325, "trend_reference": 0.571217, "distance_from_trend": -0.431039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.754606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.569312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.951756, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.435764, "excess_performance": -0.497258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.569312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.529518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.441168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.435764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 606507, "relative_activity": 1.73095, "balance": 0.651335, "dry_up": 1.754478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.22142, "annualized_volatility": 0.756304, "from_high_reference": -0.601716, "from_low_reference": 0.065574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.571217, "fair_value_reference": 0.754606, "structural_low": 0.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.020736, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.369118, "worst_return": -0.123056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030956, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064254, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.632353, "worst_return": -0.098507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.101383, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.507353, "worst_return": -0.1125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.282839, "energy": 93.124373, "activity_lines": [ 0.4331, 0.521527, 0.584938, 0.597935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.348, "volume": 276784, "typical_volume": 257032.55, "trend": 0.603783, "fair_value": 0.76685, "relative_strength": -49.377202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.251371, "energy": 92.994568, "activity_lines": [ 0.387267, 0.479173, 0.560007, 0.580939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.315, "volume": 742312, "typical_volume": 290532.75, "trend": 0.592683, "fair_value": 0.762299, "relative_strength": -54.199713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.450976, "energy": 92.560547, "activity_lines": [ 0.350033, 0.436673, 0.533276, 0.562308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.347, "volume": 833401, "typical_volume": 321565.7, "trend": 0.58205, "fair_value": 0.758138, "relative_strength": -49.552971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.108888, "energy": 87.721782, "activity_lines": [ 0.3442, 0.407173, 0.510969, 0.546457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.325, "volume": 606507, "typical_volume": 350389.7, "trend": 0.571217, "fair_value": 0.754606, "relative_strength": -52.951756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.016592, "energy": 86.481013, "activity_lines": [ 0.334067, 0.380091, 0.487771, 0.529873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }