{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68b85335-3409-4d31-8119-117769f70dc9", "symbol": "OKLO", "name": "Oklo Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.184, "architecture_energy": 67.464, "architecture_maturity": 28.054, "architecture_confidence": 88.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.67, "rotation_up": 12.01, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 71.06, "downward_expansion": 90.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.282667, 46.453091, 52.999, 55.51714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.42, "trend_reference": 60.575667, "distance_from_trend": -0.200669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.119103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.330609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318987, "excess_performance": -0.444612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.776423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.453306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55393925, "relative_activity": 0.959201, "balance": 0.58526, "dry_up": 0.819344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211182, "annualized_volatility": 0.757269, "from_high_reference": -0.750206, "from_low_reference": 0.322582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.575667, "fair_value_reference": 40.119103, "structural_low": 36.6102, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.111432, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.081866, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.001789, "worst_return": -0.258403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046378, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047727, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.75847, "worst_return": -0.052367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.071358, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.957689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.931475, "worst_return": 0.21124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.996521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.353599, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.565974, "energy": 70.541983, "activity_lines": [ 47.946667, 52.747455, 57.220238, 59.629161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.25, "volume": 45542589, "typical_volume": 57430127.65, "trend": 63.771, "fair_value": 39.692436, "relative_strength": -53.391994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.458373, "energy": 73.659609, "activity_lines": [ 44.464, 49.809636, 55.510714, 58.032817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.83, "volume": 44085225, "typical_volume": 57952497.6, "trend": 62.472, "fair_value": 39.875064, "relative_strength": -55.048384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.066399, "energy": 77.029056, "activity_lines": [ 41.902667, 47.013636, 53.751667, 56.42372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.42, "volume": 55393925, "typical_volume": 57750055.55, "trend": 60.575667, "fair_value": 40.119103, "relative_strength": -45.330609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.183839, "energy": 67.46405, "activity_lines": [ 43.282667, 46.453091, 52.999, 55.51714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }