{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68b88b1c-a5e1-496c-99e7-67805bfc922f", "symbol": "STRR", "name": "Star Equity Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.34, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.871, "architecture_energy": 22.026, "architecture_maturity": 38.273, "architecture_confidence": 76.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.2, "rotation_up": 37.43, "upward_expansion": 58.56, "deceleration": 81.03, "rotation_down": 23.03, "downward_expansion": 17.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.054667, 11.071636, 10.877766, 10.628399 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 10.399243, "distance_from_trend": 0.086618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.223445, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145457, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.159417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137966, "excess_performance": -0.049488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182079, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34097, "relative_activity": 1.068779, "balance": 1.114915, "dry_up": 0.587277, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083701, "annualized_volatility": 0.306787, "from_high_reference": -0.057548, "from_low_reference": 0.348449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.399243, "fair_value_reference": 13.223445, "structural_low": 8.95, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027144, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.001832, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.17037, "worst_return": -0.254628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047418, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.099486, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.289465, "worst_return": -0.168475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080153, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.432558, "worst_return": -0.304017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.417575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010458, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.25, "volume": 11545, "typical_volume": 38194.0, "trend": 10.37087, "fair_value": 13.505111, "relative_strength": -6.103547, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.726952, "energy": 34.399359, "activity_lines": [ 11.126, 11.116, 10.637396, 10.460282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.16, "volume": 9806, "typical_volume": 37097.75, "trend": 10.37787, "fair_value": 13.429854, "relative_strength": -2.837168, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.642271, "energy": 26.581972, "activity_lines": [ 11.137333, 11.159273, 10.717523, 10.511194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.85, "volume": 20040, "typical_volume": 37095.85, "trend": 10.375537, "fair_value": 13.353893, "relative_strength": -3.927987, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.662597, "energy": 24.067053, "activity_lines": [ 11.037333, 11.115273, 10.762508, 10.541654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.8, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 34603.85, "trend": 10.37991, "fair_value": 13.282419, "relative_strength": -4.765233, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.811986, "energy": 20.056174, "activity_lines": [ 10.958, 11.041818, 10.799017, 10.569038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 34097, "typical_volume": 31902.75, "trend": 10.399243, "fair_value": 13.223445, "relative_strength": -5.159417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.870606, "energy": 22.02588, "activity_lines": [ 11.054667, 11.071636, 10.877766, 10.628399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }