{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68c5b9f0-bae8-4f82-96af-9ddfed263a60", "symbol": "NWGL", "name": "Nature Wood Group Limited American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.386, "architecture_energy": 61.931, "architecture_maturity": 96.279, "architecture_confidence": 94.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 28.25, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.08, "rotation_down": 53.39, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.28044, 0.293578, 0.472279, 0.613356 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.306, "trend_reference": 0.808933, "distance_from_trend": -0.621724, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.390328, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.909743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.776162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.7552, "excess_performance": -0.942654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.621724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.909743, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.747762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.7552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5725484, "relative_activity": 0.569407, "balance": 0.757291, "dry_up": 1.578092, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.476116, "annualized_volatility": 1.371222, "from_high_reference": -0.832301, "from_low_reference": 0.606299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.808933, "fair_value_reference": 3.390328, "structural_low": 0.1905, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016202, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.570182, "worst_return": -0.710444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.589215, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.845072, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.589215, "worst_return": -0.589215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": -68.300149, "energy": 78.001089, "activity_lines": [ 0.278667, 0.346287, 0.543608, 0.688139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2529, "volume": 51627439, "typical_volume": 9797973.8, "trend": 0.840733, "fair_value": 3.410754, "relative_strength": -78.468385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.150884, "energy": 64.952606, "activity_lines": [ 0.2705, 0.309562, 0.503374, 0.647855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.306, "volume": 5725484, "typical_volume": 10055171.1, "trend": 0.808933, "fair_value": 3.390328, "relative_strength": -74.776162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.386414, "energy": 61.930963, "activity_lines": [ 0.28044, 0.293578, 0.472279, 0.613356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }