{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68ce5b3a-7657-44d0-a8db-4eefcb006bb4", "symbol": "LYKO-A", "name": "Lyko Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.387, "architecture_energy": 71.601, "architecture_maturity": 11.889, "architecture_confidence": 53.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.24, "rotation_up": 72.14, "upward_expansion": 64.53, "deceleration": 23.71, "rotation_down": 16.06, "downward_expansion": 25.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.793333, 77.82909, 71.55, 70.473763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.900002, "trend_reference": 73.49, "distance_from_trend": 0.073615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.274359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.347641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042272, "excess_performance": -0.019222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.493728, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51266, "relative_activity": 1.385712, "balance": 2.493728, "dry_up": 1.402997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098469, "annualized_volatility": 0.574697, "from_high_reference": -0.475399, "from_low_reference": 0.401421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.49, "fair_value_reference": 110.274359, "structural_low": 56.299999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025196, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119403, "worst_return": -0.169435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076841, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.068965, "worst_return": -0.116904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.202775, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.216441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089342, "worst_return": -0.387678, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 87.199997, "volume": 47286, "typical_volume": 37518.3, "trend": 76.78, "fair_value": 111.144231, "relative_strength": -23.763574, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.856539, "energy": 58.179449, "activity_lines": [ 79.686665, 72.603636, 68.258095, 69.428172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.199997, "volume": 19168, "typical_volume": 36220.55, "trend": 75.113333, "fair_value": 110.722436, "relative_strength": -22.085752, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.310496, "energy": 79.909419, "activity_lines": [ 84.333331, 76.44909, 70.445714, 70.229462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.900002, "volume": 51266, "typical_volume": 36996.15, "trend": 73.49, "fair_value": 110.274359, "relative_strength": -31.347641, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.387385, "energy": 71.600938, "activity_lines": [ 83.793333, 77.82909, 71.55, 70.473763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }